Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 2.086494 2.209978 2.339932 2.487402 2.650736 2.826837 3.032047
2025-08-10 1.892245 2.060879 2.246853 2.468968 2.729478 3.028481 3.402346
2025-08-17 1.760282 1.952714 2.171694 2.442661 2.773798 3.172055 3.698287
2025-08-24 1.659282 1.866524 2.108102 2.415470 2.803768 3.289318 3.962287
2025-08-31 1.591544 1.812132 2.074750 2.417307 2.863391 3.441991 4.282066
2025-09-07 1.540448 1.772949 2.055037 2.431449 2.935686 3.613016 4.642695
2025-09-14 1.474497 1.710820 2.001678 2.396617 2.937495 3.684650 4.864277
2025-09-21 1.415017 1.653291 1.950210 2.359596 2.931406 3.741591 5.066633
2025-09-28 1.358753 1.596966 1.896965 2.316084 2.911629 3.774665 5.232101
2025-10-05 1.338897 1.586098 1.901865 2.350975 3.004411 3.981746 5.710303
2025-10-12 1.321415 1.577128 1.908214 2.387309 3.100729 4.202138 6.245764
2025-10-19 1.303571 1.566606 1.911477 2.418683 3.190889 4.420521 6.815219
2025-10-26 1.269183 1.533209 1.882676 2.403044 3.208980 4.524012 7.187812
2025-11-02 1.236963 1.501549 1.854889 2.387228 3.225355 4.625805 7.576662
2025-11-09 1.203964 1.467602 1.822391 2.362395 3.224961 4.697179 7.913465
2025-11-16 1.172769 1.435044 1.790501 2.336651 3.220882 4.760745 8.245017
2025-11-23 1.152084 1.416220 1.777261 2.338391 3.262054 4.911466 8.815545
2025-11-30 1.136161 1.403390 1.771947 2.351782 3.323387 5.106718 9.548455
2025-12-07 1.107390 1.371696 1.738137 2.318792 3.302125 5.137144 9.854563
2025-12-14 1.079450 1.340430 1.703958 2.283712 3.274945 5.152894 10.125208
2025-12-21 1.051046 1.307817 1.666848 2.242455 3.234383 5.137446 10.303896
2025-12-28 1.044875 1.306547 1.675833 2.275540 3.329245 5.415465 11.456628
2026-01-04 1.039300 1.305868 1.685510 2.309974 3.428864 5.717198 12.821874